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CFB - International Bowl - Rutgers vs. Ball State (12:00 PM ET – ESPN2)
2008-01-04
The second installment of the International Bowl in Toronto matches Ball State and Rutgers, representatives of the MAC and Big East conferences. Both teams bring in 7-5 records, led by well balanced offenses that gained over 430 YPG. Kickoff is at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2.
The Knights are playing as a 10-point favorite, despite only outscoring opponents by 9.4 PPG in ’07. They played seven teams with a .500 or better record all season, going just 2-5 SU & ATS. This will be HC Greg Schiano’s team’s third straight appearance in a season ending bowl game. Rutgers is 2-0 ATS in the prior two. For Ball State, this is the first bowl appearance in 11 seasons, despite the fact that the Cardinals have been one of the better spread-covering teams in the country the L3 seasons, going 22-11 ATS. HC Brady Hoke’s team was 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS vs. bowl teams.
RUTGERS
The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers began the season as a team on the rise, coming off an outstanding campaign of progress in 2006 and ranked as the 16th team in the nation by the preseason AP Poll. However, three early wins against the lackluster peasants of college football (Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State) brought Rutgers to #10 in the nation but were followed by struggles that would all but end the hopes of bowl greatness, losing four of their next six, sweetened only by an upset victory of #2 South Florida.When all was said and done, Rutgers finished with an overall record of 7-5, going 3-4 in the Big East. The defense, allowing a troubling 155.9 rushing yards per game (62nd in the nation), served as the basis for all things gone wrong. Despite carrying a beneficial schedule that brought eight regular-season games to Rutgers’ home soil, the porous defensive effort resulted in a paltry 5-3 record in those games. On the bright side, junior RB Ray Rice continued to work as one of the elite in the game (1,732 rushing yards, 20 TDs) while the receiving corps was bolstered by the efforts of junior Tiquan Underwood (1,028 yards) and sophomore Kenny Britt (1,107 yards).
BALL STATE
The Cardinals of Ball State, coming out of the always-pesky MAC conference, failed to impress with regularity this season, finishing in 2nd place in the West Division of the conference with an overall record of 7-5, going 5-2 against conference foes. Two losses in the first five looked troublesome, but fans of the take took notice when Ball State lost to Miami (OH) and #24 Nebraska (on the road) by a combined total of two points. The bulk of the Ball State offense has come via the pass, provided by outstanding sophomore passer Nate Davis. Davis completed 57% of his pass attempts for 3,376 yards, 27 TDs, and only six interceptions. Those results helped Ball State average 293.7 passing yards per game, 24th in the nation. The rushing attack was not nearly as potent, averaging just 147.3 yards per game (67th in the land). That inability to solidify a balanced approach to moving the chains forced Ball State to rely all too heavily on the efforts of their illustrious passer and essentially led to their demise. On defense, the woes continued, allowing an average of 418.8 total yards of offense per game (88th in the nation). Unable to stop the opposition’s rushing attack (allowing 197.0 rushing yards per game, 99th in the nation), the Cardinals had to rely on point production and the ability to wow the fans to keep things interesting.
THE GAME
There is every reason to believe this will be a great matchup for those that love offensive football. Ball State has done nothing to halt the run all season long and will now face one of the prolific RBs in recent college football memory. Davis has found a way to do work against some of the top programs in the country and now hopes to shine on his biggest stage thus far. To determine the winner, the defensive leans of these teams may provide the best insight. For all of Rutgers’ misgivings, they have done an excellent job against the pass, allowing just 160.58 passing yards per game. Only Ohio State has done better and the Scarlet Knights have faced some of the best arms in the game, including USF’s Matt Grothe, West Virginia’s Pat White, and Cincinnati’s Ben Mauk. Davis may be a better talent than those fellow QBs, but his lack of experience and the Cardinals’ inability to solidify a rushing attack worthy of respect introduce major questions Ball State must answer if they hope to compete.
CFB - FedEx Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Kansas (8:15 PM ET – FOX)
2008-01-03
Both Kansas and Virginia Tech enjoyed storied seasons in 2007. The Hokies, 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS, won the ACC title while dedicating their effort to the memory of those lost in the horrific campus shootings in spring, while the Jayhawks produced their best record, 11-1, since 1899. The teams will meet in Thursday’s Orange Bowl with Tech playing as a small favorite.
HC Mark Mangino’s team boasted the best ATS record in the country as well, at 10-1, while outscoring opponents by a stellar 44.3-16.0 margin. Unfortunately, the only setback, to Missouri, came in the season finale, and cost them a shot at both the Big 12 & potential national titles. HC Frank Beamer’s team struggled early in the season, but came on like gangbusters, winning their L5 games, both SU & ATS. All but one of those came against bowl teams as well. This is KU’s first BCS-game ever, while Tech is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its prior three BCS appearances.
KANSAS
The Kansas Jayhawks, to the surprise of many, squeezed their way into the Bowl Championship Series’ after an 11-1 record and sitting at #2 in the nation at one point in the season. “Rock! Chalk! Jayhawk!” could be heard along all of Kansas’ bordering states, especially when they found out they had earned their first ever BCS-bowl bid. Led by sophomore QB Todd Reesing, they averaged 44.3 points per game. QB Reesing passed for 3,249 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. RB Brandon McAnderson rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns as well. The Jayhawks defense was fabulous, allowing just 16 points per game also. Eight of their opponents were held to 14 points or less while junior LB Joe Mortensen toyed with opponents while accumulating 14 tackles for a loss. This is just Kansas’ third Orange Bowl in school history and the first since 1969 when they were edged out by the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions 15-14. Many doubt whether or not Kansas should have received this bid, especially over Missouri (the ‘Hawks lone loss), but defensively and offensively, the Jayhawks’ have the weapons to prove the doubters wrong and earn their first ever Orange Bowl victory.
VIRGINIA TECH
In the aftermath of the Virginia Tech massacre last spring, the Hokies’ football team vowed to bear the weight of the tragedy and win football games in salutation to those that were lost on campus. They did just that. Despite finishing 11-2, with losses to LSU and Boston College, the Hokies were able to get revenge on the Eagles and win the ACC Championship game. The Hokies’ only setback has been on offense, where HC Frank Beamer played the QB-shuffle with QBs Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. QB Taylor ended up getting injured and QB Glennon redeemed himself by leading the Hokies to consecutive wins and an eventual ACC title game tilt in which they won. RB Brandon Ore regressed after a 2006 season of more than 1,100 yards rushing. RB Ore failed to get 900 yards on the ground in 2007. The defense was spectacular as usual, led by a group of LBs that could be deemed as they best in the nation. The starting LBs, Xavier Adibi, Vince Hall, and Cam Martin, combined for 277 tackles, 11 sacks, and four interceptions. The Hokies are allowing just 15.5 points per game so look for them to try to maintain with the offense and dominate the time of possession.
THE GAME
In what will be a “bend but don’t break” battle between two of 2007’s great college football defenses, the offense that can find any weakness on the other’s defense should prevail. Kansas is loaded with playmakers, from QB Reesing to WRs Marcus Henry and Dexton Fields. The Jayhawks’ will have to gameplan around the Hokies’ trio of talented LBs and CB Brandon Flowers, who has grabbed five interceptions on the year. Meanwhile, the Hokies, who lack playmakers on offense, will need to get RB Ore and the ground game going early and often. QB Glennon will have to play mistake-free football. Virginia Tech WR Justin Harper will have to step up big time, as he has been silent since their November 10th showdown against Florida State. Whichever defense holds down their fort the longest should guide their school to a victory in the 2008 Orange Bowl. If QB Todd Reesing can buy time, he should have plenty of room to stretch the Hokies’ defense and find room to throw in the seams. The Hokies’ will need to score on defense or special teams in order to help out the offense. Remember, the ACC is just 1-8 in BCS bowl games, while the Big 12 is 6-6.
CFB - Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (8:00 PM ET – FOX)
2008-01-02
The third leg of the BCS, the Fiesta Bowl, offers perhaps the best matchup of any bowl game in 2007-08, West Virginia and Oklahoma. Both teams were frontrunners for the national title for much of the season, and come into this game with two losses. The Sooners are about a TD-favorite.
Oklahoma played and won one more game, which could prove significant since an amazing trend has formed in the Fiesta Bowl in which the team with the better straight up record has won ten games in a row, both SU & ATS! WVU has struggled defensively in bowl games, allowing at least 30 points & 37 PPG in its L8. The Mountaineers are also just 2-10 ATS in L12 road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG. HC Bob Stoops’ team has lost three straight BCS bowl games, both SU & ATS, including this same one a year ago to Boise State.
OKLAHOMA
A little over a month ago you were in the driver’s seat for a shot at the national championship and you lose to an unranked team. That’s the Oklahoma story and it all starts and ends with the quarterback – freshman Sam Bradford. How in the world a redshirt freshman became the end-all, be-all for the Oklahoma Sooners is amazing, but it has happened. Without Bradford, they are entirely beatable – but with him, watch out. The Sooner season hinged on Bradford and, for the most part, he came through. His one bad game, against Colorado, led to the only loss while he was healthy. The most amazing stat about Bradford… one touchdown pass every nine attempts. There are other players on the Sooner team as they ranked second in scoring offense and defense in the conference. RB Allen Patrick led the team in rushing with nearly 1,000 yards, Juaquin Iglesias had over 850 receiving yards, and DeMarco Murray scored 15 touchdowns. Junior guard Duke Robinson and junior linebacker Curtis Lofton have been named as consensus All-Americans. Coach Bobby Stoops has to be pleased with the outcome this year despite losing a shot at the national title. This was a building year for the next two and he has another Big 12 championship. The next two years will be fun in Norman.
WEST VIRGINIA
A little over a month ago you were… well you get the picture. The Mountaineers have had a horrible month. First they lose to a horrible Pitt team… at home… with a bid in the BCS championship game on the line. Then three weeks later, they lose the man who had brought them there – Coach Rich Rodriguez. Now, with an interim coach, they must face what is probably one of the two best teams in the nation. The Mountaineers finished first in both offensive scoring and defensive scoring in the conference, but it was the Big East. Then again the Big East had some very highly ranked teams this year. WVU had three players, RB Steve Slaton, QB Pat White, and RB Noel Devine, all finish in the top ten in rushing in the conference. Devine was a find who came on late in the year with blazing speed and scary moves. While the running game is the key, WR Darius Reynaud can hurt you from the air. He did so while compiling over 850 receiving yards and 11 TDs.
THE GAME
This game could look a lot like the OU - Texas Tech game or a lot like the OU - Missouri games. Oklahoma’s stout defense should be able to keep Slaton, White, and Devine in check, but I am worried about last year’s Fiesta Bowl. The spread offense run by the BSU team was able to hang with the Sooners and you wonder… The difference this year is going to be the OU offense. If Bradford is healthy, I don’t think anyone can stop the offense from Norman. The million dollar question is how will West Virginia respond to a new coach? Typically teams don’t do well in this situation. I wouldn’t be surprised if West Virginia just kind of rolled over and semi-showed up. Interim coach Bill Stewart seems to have it all in hand, but it’s different and different very rarely translates into victories in Bowl games. Look for WVU to run up the middle when the outside game does not work. If they can break a few up the middle, they could stay close, but I wouldn’t count on it. This should be one of the best bowl games played this season – but expect the Sooners to be too tough for West Virginia.
StatFox Edge – Oklahoma by 13
CFB - Texas Bowl - TCU vs. HOUSTON (8:00 PM ET – NFL Network)
2007-12-28
The Texas Bowl is fittingly named in 2007, matching a pair of teams from the state in which it is being played. Reliant Stadium in will play host to TCU and Houston, meeting for the eighth time in the L15 years. TCU is playing in this bowl game for the second time, and the Horned Frogs will be looking for their eighth straight win over their in-state rival.
The Cougars are looking to snap that same length of losing streak in bowl games, and are just 2-5 ATS in their L7 postseason contests overall. Like most C-USA teams, the Cougars lean on their offense, with a well balanced 513 YPG (240 RYPG & 273 PYPG). TCU’s strength is its defense, allowing a respectable 4.5 yards per play. HC Gary Patterson’s TCU teams are 18-9 ATS vs. winning teams.
TCU
The TCU Horned Frogs never did become the team that everyone was expecting them to be this season. They lost to all of the Mountain West Conference's other four bowl teams, after being the clear favorites to win the league title. Looking back, it seems laughable that TCU's September visit to Texas was being viewed as a potential BCS-qualifying opportunity for the Frogs. Yet here they are at 7-5, good enough to have warranted essentially an at-large bid to the Texas Bowl and looking to finish strong. Offensive inconsistency has been TCU's biggest problem. The Frogs are 64th in the country in total offense, averaging 388 yards. Injuries at the tailback position contributed to the Frogs' inability to establish the kind of running game that has been their calling card, although Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner had their moments. Redshirt freshman quarterback Andy Dalton also had his ups and downs, while Marcus Jackson provided an occasional spark. Defensively, the Frogs have been as steady as usual. They stand 16th in the country in total defense, allowing 320 yards a game. Their aggressive approach is disruptive to opposing offenses.
HOUSTON
While the Cougars could not repeat as Conference USA champions, they did maintain their high standards of offensive production under coach Art Briles, even with the loss of quarterback Kevin Kolb, a four-year starter who became an NFL second-round draft choice. In Kolb's absence, Houston still ranks fourth in the country in total offense at 513 yards. That's largely a tribute to running back Anthony Aldridge, who assumed more responsibility and has averaged 130 yards, and to quarterback Case Kennum, who stepped in and threw for 273 yards a game. The Cougars lost badly (56-7) at Tulsa in the game that cost them a return visit to the C-USA title contest, but they were otherwise consistent on both sides of the ball. Their defense is respectable, ranking 49th by giving up 365 yards a game, and should not be overwhelmed by TCU's offense. The biggest variable in the Texas Bowl is how the Cougars will respond to their coaching situation. With Briles having departed to Baylor after five seasons in Houston, the school has hired Oklahoma assistant Kevin Sumlin to replace him. However, assistant coach Chris Thurmond will serve as Houston's interim coach in the bowl game.
THE GAME
This is a hometown appearance for Houston, although Reliant Stadium is not the Cougars' home field. TCU also should have a good following, because Houston is about four hours from Fort Worth. While this has been a generally disappointing season for the Frogs, they did play their best football in November. They also have a good recent history in the postseason, having destroyed Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl last December. Houston has had less bowl success lately, but did generate plenty of offense in a Liberty Bowl loss to South Carolina last year. This will be another good test for the Cougars' offense, because TCU's 4-2-5 scheme features blitzers coming from all directions and forces a quarterback to make good decisions. Houston can be comforted by the fact that TCU is not explosive offensively. The Frogs are methodical, the kind of team that scores in the 20s in most of its games. The challenge, then, for the Cougars is to produce the 28 or so points it will take to win this game. TCU's edge in this matchup comes from having something to prove after failing to live up to expectations in the Mountain West, as well as Houston's coaching transition.
CFB - Champs Sports Bowl - MICHIGAN ST vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (5:00 PM ET – ESPN)
2007-12-28
After being involved in the BCS conversation for much of ‘07, 10-3 Boston College settles for a Champs Sports Bowl berth vs. a 7-5 Michigan State team that rallied for wins it its L2 games to secure the same bid. There is still a lot at stake for the Eagles though, namely a seven game bowl winning streak.
All of those came under HC Tom O’Brien though, so they will be looking to start a new tradition of postseason success under Jeff Jagodzinski. B.C. is of course led by senior QB Matt Ryan, who helped the team surpass the 350-yard mark in passing six times in its 13 games. Michigan State’s strength is running the ball, 45 times per game for 200 YPG. That attack goes head-to-head with B.C.’s defensive strength, 2.2 YPR allowed! The Spartans are playing in their first bowl game since 2003.
BOSTON COLLEGE
Led by the No.1 NFL quarterback prospect in the college game in Matt Ryan and the nation’s No.1 run defense, the Eagles will attempt to extend the nation’s longest bowl winning streak to eight with a triumph over the Spartans in Mickey Mouse town. The 6’5”, 220-lbs Ryan has thrown for 4,258 yards and 28 TDs—both school records—and has registered nine 300-yard passing games this season. He’s joined in BC’s backfield by unsung senior tailback Andre Callender, who rushed for 936 yards and nine scores this season while also snaring 72 passes for 704 additional yards and four TDs. In addition to Callender, Ryan has three other trusty receivers in sophomore Rich Gunnell (68 receptions in 2007), junior Brandon Robinson (52 catches) and senior Kevin Challenger (44 catches).The defense has its share of playmakers too, most notably senior All-American free safety Jamie Silva. The 5’11”, 210-lbs Silva is as tough as $2 steak. Despite playing the second half with a fractured left foot, Silva managed a team-leading 115 tackles and six interceptions. The other primary ballhawk on the Eagles’ defense is sophomore linebacker Mark Herzlich (86 tackles in 2007).
MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans are going to Disney World with a potent and balanced offense (34.1 ppg), directed by first-year starter Brian Hoyer (2,594 yards passing, 18 TDs, seven INTs in 2007). His favorite target is junior wideout Devin Thomas, who will likely turn pro after this game’s final gun. Thomas, who has caught 75 balls for 1,226 yards and eight TDs this season, could go as early as the second round of the NFL draft this spring. The “Thunder” and “Lightning” ground attack of Jehuu Caulcrick (813 rushing yards, 21 TDs) and Javon Ringer (1,346 yards, six TDs) is a major headache for most defensive coordinators to contain. Michigan State’s defense isn’t exactly the second coming of the Steel Curtain, but rather a high-risk, high-reward type of unit. The headliners are game-changing defensive end Jonal Saint-Dic (10 sacks, eight forced fumbles) and freshman All-American linebacker Greg Jones (team-high 73 tackles). Jones seemed to be ticketed for the University of Minnesota until the school fired Glen Mason. Jones re-opened his recruiting after Mason got canned and ended up a Spartan. His future is quite bright. If Jones doesn’t bring opposing players to the ground, then chances are that junior cornerback Kendell Davis (72 tackles), senior free safety Travis Key (66 stops) or senior linebacker Kaleb Thornhill (59 tackles) will.
THE GAME
Both Boston College and Michigan State have the offensive firepower to make this a wildly entertaining game. The Eagles, a team that opened the season 8-0 and was ranked as high as No.2 in the land prior to upset losses to Florida State and Maryland, has to be somewhat disappointed to be here and not at some higher-tier bowl. In a one-on-one matchup between future pros, BC needs its best offensive lineman, senior left tackle Gosder Cherilius (6’7”, 319 lbs), to protect Ryan’s blind side from Saint-Dic, a man that Michigan State players refer to as “Sackmaster.” The other key to the game is whether the Spartans’ powerful running game, which averages over 200 yards per game, can move the ball against Boston College’s stout run defense. Michigan State needs to run the ball in order to keep the sticks moving and to keep Ryan, who will be auditioning for a bevy of NFL scouts in this game, off the field as much as possible.In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, it’s hard to bet against the Eagles, a team with a future millionaire under center and with a recent history of winning bowl games.
CFB - Hawaii Bowl - E CAROLINA vs. BOISE ST (8:00 PM ET – ESPN)
2007-12-21
After spending last bowl season amongst the elite of the BCS, Boise State settles for a Hawaii Bowl bid in 2007, taking on Conference USA foe East Carolina.
The Broncos still enjoyed a solid year at 10-2 SU & 5-6 ATS but their loss on this same field just weeks ago cost them any shot at back-to-back BCS bowls. They’ve been installed as a 10-1/2 point favorite in this game vs. a ECU team that was 7-5 SU & ATS in ’07 but owns a stellar 16-6 ATS record as an underdog under HC Skip Holtz. Boise meanwhile,
owns a 25-9 ATS record in its L34 games vs. teams with a winning record, and will test the Pirates defense with an offense that scored 42.7 PPG and gained 477 YPG this season. ECU’s opportunistic defense forced 2.2 turnovers per contest.
BOISE STATE
Well, this is not quite the Fiesta Bowl, but who’s going to complain about a December trip to Hawaii? Ironically, the Broncos positioned themselves for this bowl game by losing to Hawaii in November, enabling the Warriors to stay eligible for a BCS game. The Broncos may or may not have climbed high enough to return to the BCS if they had upset Hawaii, but they’ll never know. Meanwhile, the hometown Humanitarian Bowl officials understood BSU’s desires to go and play elsewhere, specifically Honolulu. So here are the Broncos, a year after their unbeaten season and dramatic finish against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, owning a 10-2 record that most teams would envy. They still have a high-powered offense that ranks 15th in the country at 457 yards a game. Running back Ian Johnson did not match his 2006 statistics, but still averaged 103 yards. Senior quarterback Taylor Tharp, a first-year starter, has been a pleasant surprise. He ranks eighth in passing efficiency, thanks partly to the explosiveness of receiver Jeremy Childs. Defensively, the Broncos are solid all around, allowing 326 yards a game to rank 21st.
EAST CAROLINA
The Pirates are a classic case of a team that was really good against the downtrodden clubs in Conference USA and less impressive against the top teams. Mixing in a fairly tough non-conference schedule against three ACC teams and West Virginia, it all added up to a 7-5 record that was good enough to give the Pirates a long trip to a very nice bowl destination. Statistically, ECU is not imposing. The Pirates have scored 34 or more points seven times, thanks mostly to a running game that features Chris Johnson. He averages 100 yards on the ground and has scored nearly two touchdowns a game, with receiving ability as well. But overall, the Pirates average only 377 total yards to rank 71st. Defensively, coach Skip Holtz’s team is especially vulnerable against the pass. The Pirates have allowed 290 yards a game through the air, the fifth-worst figure in the country. Their rushing defense is considerably better, giving up 145 yards. If the Pirates are not focused and aggressive on defense, they could be in for a long night against Boise State’s offense. But they also may be able to do enough with their running game to slow things down and limit the total number of possessions, which might help.
THE GAME
Nobody’s saying this game will match last season’s Fiesta Bowl for entertainment value, but it does have the potential to be high-scoring and worth watching. You just know the Broncos will have another batch of trick plays worked up for a national TV audience that has come to expect such things from them, after what they did against Oklahoma. Even without gimmicks, the Broncos should be able to move the ball and score a lot against ECU’s defense. They will be eager to perform better after their regular season ended with a loss to Hawaii in this stadium. On the other side, BSU built up some good defensive statistics against some poor teams in the Western Athletic Conference, but a decent Conference USA offense like ECU’s should be able to exploit some things. One key variable is that Boise State’s players have traveled to the islands every other year, including one month ago, and know how to prepare themselves to play a football game there. It could be another story for the Pirates, who rarely travel east of Texas, and certainly not to a place like this. If the Pirates are not careful, they could have their trip to paradise turn into a disaster.
