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January 28th College Football news ... Welcome to Betting football NCAA, the place that provides the college football bettor with everything he needs to score a profit over the long run.
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College Football News
CFL Week 4 Betting Action
2010-07-23
The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.
British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN
Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)
The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.
With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).
Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…
• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.
Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.
The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.
Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.
There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:
• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.
Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.
Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.
Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:
• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)
However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.
The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.
CFB: Liberty Bowl -ARKANSAS vs. EAST CAROLINA (5:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-04
On the surface, a SEC vs. Conference USA bowl game matchup would figure to be a mismatch, but East Carolina is C-USA’s best team while Arkansas was a middle of the pack team from the SEC. Still, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see enough in the Razorbacks to make them 8-point favorites.
East Carolina captured its second straight Conference USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game. The reward of that accomplishment…a date with a SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. In last year’s game, East Carolina lost to Kentucky, playing as a three-point favorite. In the 2010 edition, the Pirates are a 7.5-point underdog to Arkansas, which could be big for bettors, as they are 22-10 ATS in the pup role under head coach Skip Holtz. His team comes into the game at 9-4 and played its best ball at the end, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its L7. The Razorbacks also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their L9 bowl games though and are 3-6 ATS.
Quarterback Ryan Mallet transferred from Michigan and needless to say, the move was a smashing success. Mallet led the Hogs’ explosive offense to some pretty impressive numbers, 6.8 yards per play and 37 points per game. If it wasn’t for a couple of gut-wrenching three-point road losses to Florida and LSU, Arkansas would have certainly been placed in a high-profile bowl. East Carolina, led by 20th-year senior Patrick Pinkney (just kidding, it only seems that way), won its last six conference games to capture a second consecutive C-USA title. The real question here is whether the Pirates’ average defense (allowing 22 points per game and 386 yards per game) can slow down the explosive Razorback attack. Most likely the answer is no and Arkansas will prevail in a shootout.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Skip Holtz is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play as the coach of E CAROLINA. The average score was E CAROLINA 28.8, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARKANSAS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
LIBERTY BOWL Series Trend: The last three Liberty Bowl games have matched the SEC vs. Conference USA, and not surprisingly, the SEC has swept those contests 3-0 SU & ATS. What is more surprising is that C-USA was the favorite in each of the last two seasons. Overall, underdogs have covered seven of the last 10 installments of this series. The UNDER shares that same mark over the last decade, but has alternated with the OVER in the last six years.
CFB: Recent Bowl Game Betting Happenings
2009-12-16
For almost every one of the 34 bowl games, we’ve been given at least two weeks to prepare. In that sense, we might as well dig up as much as we can in search of that one golden nugget for each. In this piece, we’ll take a look at some general bowl game trends recent years, then dive into some more team specific trends for the ’09-10 bowl games. View the current lines for all the games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.
Here are some highlights of past bowl game action in terms of Home/Road, Favorite/Underdog, and Totals results.
- After being an UNDERDOG dominated event in the early part of the decade, FAVORITES have turned the tables in bowl games the last two years, going 17-15 ATS in ’08-09 & 18-14 ATS the prior season, good for 55% ATS. During that same span, UNDER has been the winning total wager in 36 of 66 games, also 55%.
- In BCS games of the last two years, FAVORITES hold a 6-4 SU edge but the ATS ledger is split 5/5.
- FAVORITES have held the biggest edge over the last two seasons in post-New Year’s non-BCS games, going 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS.
- Prior to the ‘07-08 bowl season, a distinct pattern had been forming in which UNDERDOGS were dominating the bowl games between the two holidays, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. However, in the last two seasons, that pattern has reversed itself, with FAVORITES going 16-13 ATS in those games.
- There were seven games in the ’08-09 bowl season that matched BCS-level conference schools against non-BCS opponents. In those games, the big boys took care of business with a 6-1 SU & ATS record. The only loss Utah’s Sugar Bowl upset of Alabama. Over the last two bowl seasons now, BCS schools own a 12-5 ATS mark in such matchups.
- Double-digit underdogs weren’t as effective as usual last season in bowl games but still managed to split four games against the spread. Overall, these heavy pups are 35-25-2 ATS, 58.3%, since 1992. The opening lines for the ‘09-10 bowl season show just three different games with pointspreads of 10-points or more.
- Concerning totals, 21 of last year’s 34 games went UNDER the total. In fact, in the games that were expected to be the most high scoring, or those with posted totals of 51 or higher, the UNDER was 16-6.
Here are some angles digging deeper into the “quality” of the bowl series. I have broken the database of past bowl games into five different categories.
BCS Bowl Games
- Dating back to ’04, UNDERDOGS own a sizeable 17-10 ATS edge in the last five bowl game seasons.
- The most likely FAVORITES to cover in BCS bowl games are those laying 5-points or less, 11-7 ATS in the L18
- The SEC owns a 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 BCS bowl games, best of any league
Post New Year’s Day Low Level Bowl Games
- FAVORITES dominate the late season lower tier bowl games, 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in the L11. Eight of the 11 games in this group were decided by 18-points or more.
- The bigger the FAVORITE in this category, the bigger the chance for a blowout. Chalk of 6-points or more from this set of games is 6-1 ATS in the L7.
- MAC teams are the most frequent victim in the post-New Year’s Day low level bowl games, 1-5 ATS.
Christmas thru New Year’s Eve Bowl Games
- In last year’s post-Christmas, pre-New Year’s bowl season, 11 of 15 games went UNDER the total.
- Dating back to ’98, UNDERDOGS own a huge 96-55-3 ATS (64%) edge in this grouping of bowl games. However, as noted earlier, FAVORITES have sliced the gap in the last two years.
- Double-digit UNDERDOGS are a near automatic play during this portion of the bowl season, 16-3 ATS since ’98. There could be two in place for ’09 if the lines in the Boston College & Stanford games climb a bit before kickoff.
Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games
- The Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games are those most likely to go UNDER the total, 35-23 (60%) since ’96. These games typically include the Outback, Gator, Capital One, and Cotton Bowl games.
- Interestingly, in these Premium Games with higher pointspreads, or those 7-points or greater, the OVER is 14-10 since ’92.
- The OUTRIGHT winner is a nearly automatic pointspread winner in this category of bowl games, 58-7-2 ATS since ’92.
Pre-Christmas Games
- Dating back to ’02, FAVORITES own a significant edge of 33-7 SU & 25-15 ATS (60%) in the pre-Christmas Day bowl games.
- Small FAVORITES, or those of -3.5 or less, have been particularly dominant in pre-Christmas Day bowl games over the last seven years, 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS. For ’09, there were four teams fitting that bill as of presstime, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Oregon St, and California.
- Oddsmakers have done a fine job indicating the tempo of these pre-Christmas Day bowl games. In those with totals of 63.5 or higher, 12 of the L13 games have gone OVER the total, producing 82.1 PPG. The Nevada-SMU game could prove to be a shootout.
Does how a team is playing at the end of the regular season have any bearing on how they do in their bowl game. I’ve heard arguments on both sides and have seen completely varying results on this subject. In any case, here are the hottest and coldest of the 68 teams taking part in this year’s bowl game lineup. Keep track of how these teams do, and if you see a pattern forming either way, take advantage.
The HOT Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* TEMPLE won eight of 11 games against the spread in '09
* UCF was 9-2 ATS in '09, including 4-0 ATS in its L4
* MIDDLE TENN ST comes into its bowl game on a 6-game SU & ATS winning streak
* OREGON ST closed the season on a 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS surge
* NEVADA was 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 PPG
* OHIO U, GEORGIA TECH, and TROY all won eight of their L10 games ATS
* VIRGINIA TECH swept its L4 opponents SU & ATS, yielding just 9.5 PPG
* OHIO ST was 9-2 ATS after its season opening narrow win over Navy, allowing just 10.8 PPG
* CONNECTICUT was the nation's top spread covering team in '09, 10-2 ATS
* TCU was 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS down the stretch, winning by 36.6 PPG
The COLD Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* UCLA was just 3-6 SU & ATS in its L9 games of the season
* BYU was just 3-7 ATS in its L10 regular season games
* Following its season opening rout win, USC went on to lose nine of its L11 ATS
* TEXAS A&M made a bowl game despite winning just three of its L9 games
* After starting 7-0 ATS, IDAHO finished the season on a 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS skid
* MISSOURI was just 2-6 ATS in its L8 games
* AUBURN was just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its L6 lined games
* FLORIDA ST was just 3-9 ATS this season
* S FLORIDA received a bowl bid despite going 2-5 SU & ATS in its L7 games
* MICHIGAN ST was just 1-4-1 ATS in a season-ending swoon
For more great bowl game trends, predictions, previews, and forecasts, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2009-10 StatFox Edge Bowl Game Handicapping Guide, or click on the TEAM STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS pages.
CFB: Ball State at Western Michigan (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2009-11-24
For most of the season, the Western Michigan defense has been a liability, allowing 28 points per game and ranking 107th in total yardage, surrendering 437.3 YPG. Ten days ago the defense as a group stepped up and forced six turnovers against Eastern Michigan and won handily 35-13 as 13-point favorites. The Broncos will attempt to generate the same kind of pressure and hard hitting against Ball State on ESPN2 MAC contest. In the grand scope of things, it is rather a mundane matchup, but still, Sportsbook.com has a line of WMU -11, with a total of 51.5, so a money making opportunity is there.
Western Michigan (5-6, 3-8 ATS) players, after a long season, seem to understand finally what is needed. “I felt things pick up right from the beginning,” Broncos safety Jamail Berry said of the EMU win. “We just came out with the emphasis (that) we need turnovers. Anything’s possible from the D-line all the way back to the secondary. That’s just what we tried to do.”
The Broncos have not been a good cover team the last few years, sporting a 10-22 ATS record. Quarterback Tim Hiller has 98 career touchdown passes and two more ties the MAC’s all-time record and a victory keeps a glimmer of hope for a bowl invite at 6-6.
Ball State (1-10, 5-6 ATS) fell off the planet this season after playing in the MAC championship game a season ago. The Cardinals suffered extensive losses on offense and it showed, averaging 18.9 points per game.
They also lost their coach Brady Hoke, who maybe knew what he was doing in getting out and taking San Diego State head job. Ball State made a curious hire in naming Stan Parrish as head coach. Though his credentials as assistant are excellent, coming into this position his record was 2-31-1 and has kept along same career path. After being blasted by Central Michigan 35-3 in final home game and passing for 105 yards, Ball State is 17-6 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last their game.
Sportsbook.com has Western Michigan as 11-point favorites with total 51.5 and the Broncos are 12-5 ATS in home season finales. Ball State is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons. This MAC matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and Ball State is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight meetings. The StatFox Power Line shows Western Michigan by 8
CFB: Iowa at Ohio State (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
2009-11-13
The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but oddsmakers believe it will be one-sided. Ohio State has been installed as a hefty 16.5-point favorite. It seems to be a well-set line, since the action on the Sportsbook.com BETTING TRENDS page shows that 54%of players favor Iowa, and 46% favor the Buckeyes, a relatively even split. Read on for a preview of this key clash.
Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressel’s bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, he’s not taken the big stride forward. Part is a dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with the Nittany Lions.
While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which the home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.
Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.
Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.
The StatFox Power Line shows Ohio State by 17, so it seems that Sportsbook.com oddsmakers were sharp in putting up the lofty number.