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CFB: Orange Bowl – Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-05
The BCS bowl games continue on Tuesday night with the annual installment of the Orange Bowl from Miami. This year’s matchup pits Iowa out of the Big Ten vs. Georgia Tech from the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are 5.5-point favorites currently at Sportsbook.com, up from -2.5 at opener. The latest number has managed to push more of the action towards the Hawkeyes, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
This year’s Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Tech’s option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.
Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.
This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.
Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Googled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.
Georgia Tech’s defense was strictly average against teams that didn’t run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, it’s impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets (11-2, 8-4 ATS) were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnson’s club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.
All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like they’ve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.
Iowa has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Bookmaker.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.
Coach Johnson’s team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentz’s team really limited the opponent’s passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Tech’s passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.
Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowl’s since 2004.
The StatFox Power Line shows Georgia Tech by 4.
CFB: Fiesta Bowl - BOISE STATE vs. TCU (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-04
Two of this year’s bowl games were rematches of a year ago. For Boise State and TCU, the stakes are much higher this time, as the teams step up from the Poinsettia to Fiesta Bowl. Strangely there’s no Goliath in this battle of two “David’s,” with both teams having crashed the BCS party by going unbeaten. Of course, with pointspreads in play, one team has to play the role of favorite, and that is TCU (-8). That line seems to have done its job, as according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page, action was split down the middle at last check.
The Horned Frogs were dominant on both sides of the ball, and boast the country’s No. 2-ranked defense in yards per play. Boise State did its best work on offense, scoring 44.2 points per game, ranking No. 1 nationally. In terms of bowl success, it’s all TCU, which owns a 5-1 SU and ATS record in its L6. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their L5.
Many of us would like to have seen these non-automatic qualifying teams compete against BCS conference teams, especially since the two met just one year ago with TCU defeating Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, 17-16. Regardless, the Fiesta Bowl still presents an interesting matchup. The Horned Frogs have a dominating defense, allowing just 12.4 points and 233 yards per game. TCU can also put points on the board, winning by 36.6 points per game and going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS down the stretch. Nobody has been better on the offensive end this season than the Broncos, however, who average a nation-best 44.2 points per game. Sixty-eight percent of the public is backing Boise State as of press time. I’ll call for a dominant TCU victory as defense wins out. TCU 41, Boise State 24.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TCU 37.0, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
FIESTA BOWL Series Trend: Five different conferences boast Fiesta Bowl victories over the last five seasons, not a surprising trend considering underdogs are on a 6-2 ATS run in the series. In past Fiesta Bowl games with pointspreads of 5.5-points or more, the underdog has covered seven of nine. This year’s line shows TCU -6.5. In regards to totals, where the posted number closes is a strong indicator of the result, as in games with posted numbers of 5 or higher, the UNDER is 6-2, in games below 51, the OVER is 7-2.
CFB: Alamo Bowl - MICHIGAN STATE vs. TEXAS TECH (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-04
Texas Tech players are insisting that the Mike Leach controversy will not be a distraction to them in the Alamo Bowl game vs. Michigan State. Still, minus their long-time head coach, you have to wonder whether they are capable of pulling it together to beat the Spartans, much less cover the heavy TD-chalk line they are laying at Sportsbook.com.
The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the L13 editions. Unfortunately, this is the last time for the immediate future that the conference will be in the game, with the Pac-10 stepping in. Big Ten teams boast a 20-9-1 ATS record in their L30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, often the case in this bowl series. For this year’s game, Michigan State (6-6) is a seven-point underdog to Texas Tech, which finished 8-4. Ironically, it is the Spartans with the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. Tech has lost its L4 bowl games ATS and is 0-2 SU and ATS in its L2 Alamo Bowl appearances.
Sometimes analysis is right in front you and that makes breaking down a game simple. Texas Tech is the No. 2 passing team in the country and Michigan State is 103rd at stopping the pass. The Red Raiders are an ordinary 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS versus other bowl participants. However, the Spartans are 1-4 SU and woebegone 0-5 ATS taking on the five teams they played that have postseason appearances. The Michigan State roster is thinner since it played its last game due to suspensions, but rallying the troops doesn’t protect a squad that played poorly against better competition and one that can’t stop passing teams. Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach has not covered his last four bowl games (2-2), but that stops against an undermanned Michigan State club. Play Texas Tech.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
MICHIGAN ST is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MICHIGAN ST 23.4, OPPONENT 31.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
TEXAS TECH is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 31.9, OPPONENT 34.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ALAMO BOWL Series Trend: There are a few significant patterns that have formed in the Alamo Bowl series. First, the Big Ten team is 8-5 SU & 10-3 ATS in the L13 games. Second, the underdog is on a 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS run, and third, UNDER the total has converted in nine of the 13 years. The last four times the point spread was greater than a TD, the dog covered. All signs point to a low-scoring Michigan State ATS win.
CFB: Liberty Bowl -ARKANSAS vs. EAST CAROLINA (5:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-04
On the surface, a SEC vs. Conference USA bowl game matchup would figure to be a mismatch, but East Carolina is C-USA’s best team while Arkansas was a middle of the pack team from the SEC. Still, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see enough in the Razorbacks to make them 8-point favorites.
East Carolina captured its second straight Conference USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game. The reward of that accomplishment…a date with a SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. In last year’s game, East Carolina lost to Kentucky, playing as a three-point favorite. In the 2010 edition, the Pirates are a 7.5-point underdog to Arkansas, which could be big for bettors, as they are 22-10 ATS in the pup role under head coach Skip Holtz. His team comes into the game at 9-4 and played its best ball at the end, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its L7. The Razorbacks also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their L9 bowl games though and are 3-6 ATS.
Quarterback Ryan Mallet transferred from Michigan and needless to say, the move was a smashing success. Mallet led the Hogs’ explosive offense to some pretty impressive numbers, 6.8 yards per play and 37 points per game. If it wasn’t for a couple of gut-wrenching three-point road losses to Florida and LSU, Arkansas would have certainly been placed in a high-profile bowl. East Carolina, led by 20th-year senior Patrick Pinkney (just kidding, it only seems that way), won its last six conference games to capture a second consecutive C-USA title. The real question here is whether the Pirates’ average defense (allowing 22 points per game and 386 yards per game) can slow down the explosive Razorback attack. Most likely the answer is no and Arkansas will prevail in a shootout.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Skip Holtz is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play as the coach of E CAROLINA. The average score was E CAROLINA 28.8, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARKANSAS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
LIBERTY BOWL Series Trend: The last three Liberty Bowl games have matched the SEC vs. Conference USA, and not surprisingly, the SEC has swept those contests 3-0 SU & ATS. What is more surprising is that C-USA was the favorite in each of the last two seasons. Overall, underdogs have covered seven of the last 10 installments of this series. The UNDER shares that same mark over the last decade, but has alternated with the OVER in the last six years.
CFB: Papa Johns Bowl - CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (2:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-04
The Papa Johns Bowl matches the SEC and the Big East as Connecticut takes on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 5-point favorites after opening at -4.5, thanks to 71% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com going their way. The Huskies have been nearly automatic though for bettors this season, and it would be crazy to think they won’t be motivated to compete here.
Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 against the number, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies in the Papa John’s Bowl will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn plays as a 5-point underdog to South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country, loaded with eight eventual bowl teams. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS in those games. Strangely, this is just the fourth time this season that head coach Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 SU and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS prior.
If you believe in the old saying “a trend is your friend,” then there’s only one way to go here. UConn was a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in 2009. Picked to finished near the bottom of the Big East standings, head coach Randy Edsall’s crew overachieved on its way to a third consecutive bowl game. Spurrier and South Carolina continued their recent trend of fading down the stretch, losing four of their last six to ruin a 5-1 start. In fact, the Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS on the road in the second half of the season over the last three years, including an average loss of 37-17. There really isn’t a stand-out player of note on either of these teams and statistically, both are ordinary on both sides of the ball. Factoring all that in, the best play is to follow the trend and take the points.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Randy Edsall is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) as an underdog as the coach of CONNECTICUT. The average score was CONNECTICUT 19.9, OPPONENT 30.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CONNECTICUT) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (58-24 since 1992.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)
PAPA JOHN'S BOWL Series Trend: The Big East has won all three previous games of the Papa John’s Bowl series, being favored each time by at least 5.5-points. The ATS ledger is split 1-1-1. All three previous games went UNDER the total. This will be the first time that the game is played in January and the first time that the Big East is the underdog.