CFB: Emerald Bowl - BOSTON COLLEGE vs. USC (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC, as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. It will be even more devastating however, if they can’t beat Boston College in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. T

2009-12-28

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC, as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. It will be even more devastating however, if they can’t beat Boston College in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. They are a 7.5-point favorite at last check, and according to the Sportsbook.com BETTING TRENDS page, that line has been able to adequately balance the incoming action on the contest.

Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, which has been part of the BCS party in each of the last seven years and was 6-1 SU and ATS in those bowl games. Still, the Trojans are a heavy nine-point favorite against a Boston College team that shares the same 8-4 record in ’09, and is on a 19-6 ATS run when playing with rest. The Eagles lost in the Music City Bowl game a year ago, 16-14, snapping an eight-game bowl win streak.

For the first time in eight years, Pete Carroll and the Trojans won’t be in a BCS bowl. If you read the press clippings, USC players have made no effort to hide their disappointment with this trip to San Francisco. One has to wonder how motivated they will be here. This was just another typical season for Boston College – an 8-4 record anchored by solid, but unspectacular defense (19.4 points per game, 4.6 yards per play, 318 yards per game). A late-season loss to North Carolina prevented the Eagles from playing in another ACC title game. Boston College is also one of the nation’s best bowl teams, winning eight consecutive bowls before last year’s upset loss to Vanderbilt. With a shaky freshman quarterback, Matt Barkley, and questionable motivation, USC certainly won’t light up the scoreboard as it has in previous bowls. A tight, low-scoring struggle is the most likely scenario here; an outright upset isn’t out of the question.

EMERALD BOWL Series Trend: The Pac 10 has won consecutive Emerald Bowl games, but California’s inability to separate from Miami last year pushed the underdog’s record to 5-2 ATS overall. In all three previous games where the pointspread exceeded a touchdown, the underdog covered, a good sign for Boston College’s chances. In terms of totals, UNDER has been the result of the last two games, after OVER had won four straight. Interestingly, in the three lowest totaled Emerald Bowl games (46 or less), the underdog won both outright and ATS.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Pete Carroll is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of USC. The average score was USC 35.5, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (USC) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in non-conference games. (40-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)

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