CFB: FIESTA BOWL - OHIO STATE vs. TEXAS (8:15 PM ET, FOX)

Ohio State has lost each of the last two national championship games. With that said, perhaps HC Jim Tressel’s team will be happy to be back in the Fiesta Bowl, site of its last bowl game win


2009-01-05

Ohio State has lost each of the last two national championship games. With that said, perhaps HC Jim Tressel’s team will be happy to be back in the Fiesta Bowl, site of its last bowl game win, over Notre Dame three years ago. This year’s opponent is Texas, who has been installed as an 8-point favorite by oddsmakers after an impressive 11-1 regular season. Bettors are backing the Longhorns at a 4-1 ratio.

Considering the circumstances involved, tons of plot lines for the Fiesta Bowl with two heavyweights. If Texas wins decisively against Ohio State and Oklahoma losses, the Longhorns and the media can whine for weeks. Ohio State played two very good teams and lost both, a loss to Texas, has more questions being asked why 12-0 Boise State wasn’t invited instead. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS after a win by 21 or more points, nonetheless are terrible bowlers. Texas is 8-16 ATS all-time and even worse 5-12 ATS as favorites. The Buckeyes have been failing in big games and need upset to repair pride for Scarlet and Gray. Coach Tressel teams are 18-9 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more PPG.

Fiesta Bowl Series Trend: Oklahoma has lost the last two Fiesta Bowl games outright as a favorite of 7-points or more, contributing to a run of 5-2 SU & ATS overall by the underdog in this bowl series. The loss last year also snapped a 10-game SU & ATS winning streak by the Fiesta Bowl team with the better straight up record. Texas boasts that edge this season.

Top ATS Trend
• TEXAS is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992. The average score was TEXAS 30.8, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Top Totals Trend
• TEXAS is 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was TEXAS 35.8, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Recent OHIO STATE Bowl Game Trends
* Dogs have had their day in OHIO ST bowl games, 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in L9.
* OHIO ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in Fiesta Bowl since '03.
* The L7 OHIO ST bowl game totals have seen 5 OVER's, 2 UNDER's.

Recent TEXAS Bowl Game Trends
* Underdogs are on a run of 9-3 ATS in L12 TEXAS bowl games.
* TEXAS is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in its L3 bowl games vs. Big Ten teams.
* The OVER is 7-2 in the L9 totaled TEXAS bowl games.

StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings say: TEXAS by 11

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