CFB: Meineke Car Care Bowl - NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH (4:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care B

2009-12-28

Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but they have lost the prior two. As a 2.5-point dog according to Sportsbook.com, oddsmakers are projecting a third straight loss.

North Carolina was 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in ’09 and seemed to play their best football at the end, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five contests. Pittsburgh looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago. Overall, they were 9-3 but lost their last two. They haven’t won a bowl game since ’03 and are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span.

Pittsburgh finished the season with back-to-back losses to West Virginia, 19-16, and Cincinnati, 45-44, and as a result cost itself the Big East title. The Panthers were defeated three times this season by an average score of just 3.7 points. North Carolina, on the other hand, was all over the map, defeating Virginia Tech (9-3) and Miami (9-3), but losing to N.C. State (5-7) and Virginia (3-9). Pittsburgh’s 5.0 yards per rush will be tested against a North Carolina defense that allowed just 2.8 YPR. Expect freshman Dion Lewis to eventually wear down the Tar Heels’ defensive line, however, in what should be a low-scoring victory for the Panthers. Both FoxSheet Game Estimators call for a seven-point Pittsburgh victory. Roll with that advice. Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, North Carolina 16.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Series trend: This ACC-Big East bowl series has been dominated by the ACC, 5-1 ATS since ’02, as West Virginia won the game last year over North Carolina but failed to cover. The OVER & UNDER have alternated each of the previous seven years’ totals, meaning the pattern indicates UNDER for ’09. Interestingly, that same alternating trend has developed for the favorite/underdog result as well, putting the favorite in place to get it done this season, that being Pittsburgh.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Super Situation
Play Against - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 PYA) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
Butch Davis is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) in all games he has coached. The average score was Davis 25.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 1*)

Visit the BETTING TRENDS page to see where bettors are placing their faith for this game.