February 2012 College Football Events
Calendar of College Football Events for February 2012 brought to you by bettingfootballncaa.com
College Football News
Kansas State vs. Kansas Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-14
Sportsbook.com’s Betting Lines: Kansas State -3, Total: 50
In-state rivals are looking to get back on track following blowout losses as they meet for the 108th time in the Sunflower Showdown. K-State surrendered 451 rushing yards in a 48-13 home loss to Nebraska while Kansas allowed 678 total yards in a 55-7 defeat to Baylor. The Wildcats, who have not played a true road game this season, have lost eight straight road games. After losing three straight meetings to the Jayhawks, KSU won last year 17-10, behind 185 rushing yards and a TD from Daniel Thomas.
Thomas is really the only offensive player getting the job done. His 138 rushing YPG ranks seventh in the nation, but he has not had much room to run in the past two weeks (44 carries, 142 yds, 3.2 YPC). Kansas State is still not comfortable with its quarterback situation, considering the Wildcats have the fourth-worst passing offense among FBS schools (156 pass YPG). Senior Carson Coffman remains the starter despite three straight sub-par performances -- 55% completion rate, 128 passing YPG, 2 TD, 3 INT. Another area where KSU is very weak, is its run defense. KSU now ranks as the fifth-worst such unit in the nation (247 rush YPG) following the Nebraska game.
Kansas has also struggled stopping the run, allowing 188 rushing YPG (95th in nation). And the Jayhawks aren’t much better offensively, ranking 100th in the nation with 19.2 PPG. But KU is much more secure in its QB position with freshman Jordan Webb continuing to improve. Webb has four straight games with a TD pass and has completed more than 60 percent of his attempts this year. Another freshman, James Sims, has done a nice job rushing the football with 410 total yards and three touchdowns in four games.
The favorite in this series is 11-3 SU & ATS since 1996. No wonder 87% of the college football betting population at Sportsbook.com are pounding the KSU point spread (-3).
Here are a few betting trends to consider before making your Kansas State vs. Kansas bets.
Play On - A road team (KANSAS ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. (27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*
KSU head coach Bill Snyder is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Snyder 31.2, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 4*).
While the following college football betting trends leans towards the under covering.
Play Under - Any team against the total (KANSAS) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the first half of the season.
(53-16 since 1992.) (76.8%, +35.4 units. Rating = 4*).
To check out more college football betting trends or to bet on tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com.
CFL Week 4 Betting Action
2010-07-23
The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.
British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN
Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)
The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.
With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).
Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…
• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.
Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.
The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.
Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.
There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:
• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.
Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.
Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.
Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:
• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)
However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.
The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.
CFB: Recent Bowl Game Betting Happenings
2009-12-16
For almost every one of the 34 bowl games, we’ve been given at least two weeks to prepare. In that sense, we might as well dig up as much as we can in search of that one golden nugget for each. In this piece, we’ll take a look at some general bowl game trends recent years, then dive into some more team specific trends for the ’09-10 bowl games. View the current lines for all the games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.
Here are some highlights of past bowl game action in terms of Home/Road, Favorite/Underdog, and Totals results.
- After being an UNDERDOG dominated event in the early part of the decade, FAVORITES have turned the tables in bowl games the last two years, going 17-15 ATS in ’08-09 & 18-14 ATS the prior season, good for 55% ATS. During that same span, UNDER has been the winning total wager in 36 of 66 games, also 55%.
- In BCS games of the last two years, FAVORITES hold a 6-4 SU edge but the ATS ledger is split 5/5.
- FAVORITES have held the biggest edge over the last two seasons in post-New Year’s non-BCS games, going 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS.
- Prior to the ‘07-08 bowl season, a distinct pattern had been forming in which UNDERDOGS were dominating the bowl games between the two holidays, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. However, in the last two seasons, that pattern has reversed itself, with FAVORITES going 16-13 ATS in those games.
- There were seven games in the ’08-09 bowl season that matched BCS-level conference schools against non-BCS opponents. In those games, the big boys took care of business with a 6-1 SU & ATS record. The only loss Utah’s Sugar Bowl upset of Alabama. Over the last two bowl seasons now, BCS schools own a 12-5 ATS mark in such matchups.
- Double-digit underdogs weren’t as effective as usual last season in bowl games but still managed to split four games against the spread. Overall, these heavy pups are 35-25-2 ATS, 58.3%, since 1992. The opening lines for the ‘09-10 bowl season show just three different games with pointspreads of 10-points or more.
- Concerning totals, 21 of last year’s 34 games went UNDER the total. In fact, in the games that were expected to be the most high scoring, or those with posted totals of 51 or higher, the UNDER was 16-6.
Here are some angles digging deeper into the “quality” of the bowl series. I have broken the database of past bowl games into five different categories.
BCS Bowl Games
- Dating back to ’04, UNDERDOGS own a sizeable 17-10 ATS edge in the last five bowl game seasons.
- The most likely FAVORITES to cover in BCS bowl games are those laying 5-points or less, 11-7 ATS in the L18
- The SEC owns a 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 BCS bowl games, best of any league
Post New Year’s Day Low Level Bowl Games
- FAVORITES dominate the late season lower tier bowl games, 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in the L11. Eight of the 11 games in this group were decided by 18-points or more.
- The bigger the FAVORITE in this category, the bigger the chance for a blowout. Chalk of 6-points or more from this set of games is 6-1 ATS in the L7.
- MAC teams are the most frequent victim in the post-New Year’s Day low level bowl games, 1-5 ATS.
Christmas thru New Year’s Eve Bowl Games
- In last year’s post-Christmas, pre-New Year’s bowl season, 11 of 15 games went UNDER the total.
- Dating back to ’98, UNDERDOGS own a huge 96-55-3 ATS (64%) edge in this grouping of bowl games. However, as noted earlier, FAVORITES have sliced the gap in the last two years.
- Double-digit UNDERDOGS are a near automatic play during this portion of the bowl season, 16-3 ATS since ’98. There could be two in place for ’09 if the lines in the Boston College & Stanford games climb a bit before kickoff.
Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games
- The Premium Post-New Year’s Bowl Games are those most likely to go UNDER the total, 35-23 (60%) since ’96. These games typically include the Outback, Gator, Capital One, and Cotton Bowl games.
- Interestingly, in these Premium Games with higher pointspreads, or those 7-points or greater, the OVER is 14-10 since ’92.
- The OUTRIGHT winner is a nearly automatic pointspread winner in this category of bowl games, 58-7-2 ATS since ’92.
Pre-Christmas Games
- Dating back to ’02, FAVORITES own a significant edge of 33-7 SU & 25-15 ATS (60%) in the pre-Christmas Day bowl games.
- Small FAVORITES, or those of -3.5 or less, have been particularly dominant in pre-Christmas Day bowl games over the last seven years, 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS. For ’09, there were four teams fitting that bill as of presstime, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Oregon St, and California.
- Oddsmakers have done a fine job indicating the tempo of these pre-Christmas Day bowl games. In those with totals of 63.5 or higher, 12 of the L13 games have gone OVER the total, producing 82.1 PPG. The Nevada-SMU game could prove to be a shootout.
Does how a team is playing at the end of the regular season have any bearing on how they do in their bowl game. I’ve heard arguments on both sides and have seen completely varying results on this subject. In any case, here are the hottest and coldest of the 68 teams taking part in this year’s bowl game lineup. Keep track of how these teams do, and if you see a pattern forming either way, take advantage.
The HOT Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* TEMPLE won eight of 11 games against the spread in '09
* UCF was 9-2 ATS in '09, including 4-0 ATS in its L4
* MIDDLE TENN ST comes into its bowl game on a 6-game SU & ATS winning streak
* OREGON ST closed the season on a 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS surge
* NEVADA was 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 PPG
* OHIO U, GEORGIA TECH, and TROY all won eight of their L10 games ATS
* VIRGINIA TECH swept its L4 opponents SU & ATS, yielding just 9.5 PPG
* OHIO ST was 9-2 ATS after its season opening narrow win over Navy, allowing just 10.8 PPG
* CONNECTICUT was the nation's top spread covering team in '09, 10-2 ATS
* TCU was 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS down the stretch, winning by 36.6 PPG
The COLD Teams Heading into the Bowl Games
* UCLA was just 3-6 SU & ATS in its L9 games of the season
* BYU was just 3-7 ATS in its L10 regular season games
* Following its season opening rout win, USC went on to lose nine of its L11 ATS
* TEXAS A&M made a bowl game despite winning just three of its L9 games
* After starting 7-0 ATS, IDAHO finished the season on a 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS skid
* MISSOURI was just 2-6 ATS in its L8 games
* AUBURN was just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its L6 lined games
* FLORIDA ST was just 3-9 ATS this season
* S FLORIDA received a bowl bid despite going 2-5 SU & ATS in its L7 games
* MICHIGAN ST was just 1-4-1 ATS in a season-ending swoon
For more great bowl game trends, predictions, previews, and forecasts, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2009-10 StatFox Edge Bowl Game Handicapping Guide, or click on the TEAM STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS pages.
CFB: Iowa at Ohio State (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
2009-11-13
The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but oddsmakers believe it will be one-sided. Ohio State has been installed as a hefty 16.5-point favorite. It seems to be a well-set line, since the action on the Sportsbook.com BETTING TRENDS page shows that 54%of players favor Iowa, and 46% favor the Buckeyes, a relatively even split. Read on for a preview of this key clash.
Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressel’s bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, he’s not taken the big stride forward. Part is a dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with the Nittany Lions.
While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which the home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.
Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.
Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.
The StatFox Power Line shows Ohio State by 17, so it seems that Sportsbook.com oddsmakers were sharp in putting up the lofty number.
Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN
2009-10-23
Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.
After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.
The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.
The StatFox Power Line calls for Iowa (-2) to pull minor upset at Sportsbook.com.